Hidden Truths of South African Alcohol Policy: Insights from Michael Fridjhon

Attributed to 19th century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli is the saying, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” It should be added that there are three kinds of statisticians: competent statisticians, incompetent statisticians, and deceitful statisticians. Laws of defamation currently prevent me – at least for the moment – from categorizing the experts whose latest articles on the utility of alcohol bans in reducing trauma have been published. However, I will analyze some of the arguments they have used and the conclusions they have drawn, so that you can decide for yourself.

This topic requires a bit of background: a small group of researchers, many funded by the Medical Research Council (MRC), have published articles over the past two decades on alcohol consumption and misuse. The data they compiled have been music to the ears of the prohibitionist lobby within the ANC. This may, of course, be a complete coincidence, but since the MRC is government-funded, this stream of research has proven to be a lucrative way to gain further funding and advance academically.

For the most part, the spirits industry has been eerily silent. Despite articles claiming such outlandish things that even a brain-dead zombie on drugs (Nyaope) could recognize the mistakes, no industry organizations have questioned the publication. For instance, Richard Matzopoulos argued in 2014 using data from 2009 that alcohol costs the South African economy over R200 billion. To arrive at this figure, he aggregated a variety of indirect costs, including national security expenses. Apparently, break-ins and thefts are committed only by people fully intoxicated with alcohol. (To accept this logic, you must also believe that without alcohol, no security fences, burglar alarms, or armed response units would be necessary). When you begin adding tangential costs, where do you draw the line? Why not hold alcohol accountable for unwanted pregnancies, and then blame the industry for crimes committed by illegitimate children?

Covid-19 provided a Godsend opportunity: The National Coronavirus Command Council, a prohibitionist-dominated body, used the Disaster Management Act to advance its agenda. The MRC group, always eager to please their masters, immediately set about using alcohol bans to support the anti-alcohol proposals they had attempted to introduce into legislation. Less than two months into the pandemic, they published in the International Journal of Health Policy Management “South Africa’s COVID-19 Alcohol Sales Ban: The Potential for Better Policy Making.”

They argued that “the dramatic drop in violence and injuries following an alcohol sales ban in South Africa has implications for post-lockdown alcohol policy as well as emergency measures in other countries… The decrease in alcohol-related trauma, alongside the perception of alcohol’s role in crime and the undermining of public safety, has garnered political and public support for the retention of these restrictions.” They concluded that “we have an opportunity for stakeholders to collaborate to develop better alcohol policy and secure the future of all South Africans post-COVID.” The spirit industry’s culture of ignoring the rubbish being written by the anti-alcohol research lobby changed with the Covid-19 lockdowns. Finally, formal industry bodies united and began investing in expertise to challenge the very poor results of the MRC group.

Last year, a peer-reviewed document was published, showing that there was no compelling evidence for the theory that the alcohol sales ban reduced trauma admissions: in over twenty countries that imposed very strict controls during the pandemic while permitting the continued sale of alcoholic beverages, the drop in trauma admissions was similar to that in South Africa. It was not the alcohol sales ban that produced the result, but rather mobility restrictions. The statisticians were unimpressed. They continued to beat the drum to produce an article that "apparently" supported their prohibitionist agenda.

This required several sleight-of-hand tricks. First, they withdrew their raw data from public scrutiny. Second, they made no provisions for illegal alcohol deliveries. In other words, they assumed there was no alcohol just because it was not legally available. This required extraordinarily a lot of mental gymnastics – as they were forced to ignore the arguments they used in other studies (and that they fed to the WHO). This study therefore does not mention the estimate that about 25% of the alcohol consumed in South Africa is unaccounted for in official statistics.

Third, they ignored data – such as the decline in deaths when alcohol became legally available again at the end of June/July 2020. Finally, they knowingly utilized the least valid mobility statistics (the residence data from Google Mobility) to dismiss the impact of restricted mobility on trauma statistics.

There seems to be no hope that even the widespread publication of evidence of what they have done will provide them with cover. Like PSA tenderpreneurs who cannot imagine a life without their daily dose of Moët, they have become addicted. More importantly, those they serve will not abandon their agenda just because the facts can no longer be squeezed into their model. If anything, they will make greater efforts than before to enforce the legislative changes that depend on their research findings.

The wine industry as a whole cannot assume that the formal organizations (which although finally acted, albeit late) will address this with the urgency and strength required. Anyone who does not want stricter advertising bans, a drinking age raised to 21, further restrictions on trading hours, and the full range of regulations sought by the Stalinists of the South African Alcohol Policy Alliance, it is time to take action now.

Michael Fridjhon has over 35 years of experience in the spirits industry. He is the founder of Winewizard.co.za and has held various positions including Guest Professor of Wine Business at the University of Cape Town; founder and director of WineX – the largest consumer wine exhibition in the southern hemisphere; and chairman of the Old Mutual Trophy Wine Show.